Tennessee 2026 Primary Election — Governor & U.S. Senate / Prediction

Will the Republican primary for Tennessee Governor be decided by a margin of 20 percentage points or more between the top two finishers?

Open · Closes in 33h · Aug 6, 2026, 11:00 PM

This measures how competitive the primary is rather than predicting which named candidate wins.

Outcomes

Crowd Forecast shows the Starting Forecast until Calls begin.

Yes50%
No50%

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Resolution rule

Resolves Yes if the Tennessee Secretary of State's certified results (or, pending certification, its official unofficial primary-night results) show a margin of 20.0 percentage points or more between the top two finishers in the Republican gubernatorial primary; No if the margin is under 20.0 points.

Starting Forecast source: editorial prior

https://sos.tn.gov/elections/results
https://apnews.com/hub/tennessee-elections

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