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Data story · sample data

One web of markets.

No market moves alone. Map how 24 of them move together and a handful of hidden themes explains most of what happens.

FForeseez ResearchOct 2, 20268 min read
01

Draw a line when two markets move together

Take two prediction markets and line up their daily moves over a few months. If they tend to rise and fall on the same days, they are linked. Draw a line between them. Do that for every pair and you get a web.

Pick a market below to see what it is tied to, and raise the threshold to keep only the strongest links.

FIGURE 1 · THE WEB24 markets, every link above the line
RATES AND GROWTHOILPOLITICS AND POLICYCRYPTOGEOPOLITICS Fed cut DecFed funds < 3.5%Core CPI > 3%Payrolls beatRecession 2027S&P up for year10y above 4.5%Euro recessionBrent > $90OPEC+ cutHormuz closureGasoline > $4Inflation > 3% MarDem HouseGOP SenateShutdown by DecTariff hike by Q1Chip export rulesAI preemption lawBitcoin > $150kEther new highCrypto market lawUkraine ceasefireRed Sea normal
RATES AND GROWTHFed cut Dec8 links above 0.35 Fed funds < 3.5%moves with it+0.71Core CPI > 3%moves against it−0.5010y above 4.5%moves against it−0.45Brent > $90moves against it−0.45Recession 2027moves with it+0.42
Circles are markets, grouped by theme. Line thickness is link strength. Node size grows with the number of links above the threshold. Sample correlations.

Raise the threshold and the web breaks into islands: rates and growth in one, oil in another, elections in a third. Lower it and bridges appear. The Fed market ties to oil. Bitcoin ties to stocks. Very little stands alone.

02

The same web, as a grid

A web is good for seeing structure. A grid is better for reading numbers. Here are twelve of the same markets, every pair, colored by how strongly they move together. Then change the order.

FIGURE 2Every pair, one square each
Fed cut DecFed cut DecFed funds < 3.5%Fed funds < 3.5%Core CPI > 3%Core CPI > 3%Payrolls beatPayrolls beatRecession 2027Recession 2027S&P up for yearS&P up for year10y above 4.5%10y above 4.5%Brent > $90Brent > $90OPEC+ cutOPEC+ cutGasoline > $4Gasoline > $4Bitcoin > $150kBitcoin > $150kEther new highEther new high
MOVE TOGETHERBitcoin > $150k and Ether new high+0.82The two biggest crypto markets move almost as one. Holding both is close to holding one twice.
STRONGEST PAIRS
Blue squares move together, amber move apart; darker is stronger. The outlined square is the pair on the right. Sample correlations.

Sorted by theme, the grid falls into blocks. Sorted alphabetically, the same numbers look like noise. Structure is often something you find by choosing the right order to look in.

03

A few themes do most of the work

If the web has islands, perhaps a few underlying forces drive each one. There are standard tools for finding them; the simplest, principal component analysis, looks for the combinations of markets that account for the most movement. In our sample, four themes explain 78% of daily moves.

FIGURE 3Four themes, 78% of the movement
Share of daily movement across all 24 markets each theme accounts for.
Rates and growth: who moves with it Fed cut Dec+0.82Fed funds < 3.5%+0.76Recession 2027+0.61Core CPI > 3%−0.5810y above 4.5%−0.55S&P up for year+0.41Payrolls beat−0.44Bitcoin > $150k+0.28

One theme ties most of the rate and growth markets together. A good way to read it: the market's collective view of how fast the economy is cooling.

Bars on the right show each market's loading on the theme: how much it moves when the theme moves. Theme names are ours. Sample data.
04

What it means for your watchlist

Most watchlists feel diverse. Nine markets, five topics. Look at the themes underneath and the picture changes. Add and remove markets below and watch what you are really following.

FIGURE 49 markets, really 3 bets
Rates and growth 46%Oil supply 26%Crypto risk 18%
Rates and growth 46%Oil supply 26%Election 1%Crypto risk 18%Unexplained 9%

A genuinely spread list. No single theme dominates, so one surprise will not move everything.

Each market's exposure is split across themes by its loadings in Figure 3. Sample data.

This is the idea behind the positions view in Foreseez: it groups what you follow or hold by what it is really a bet on, and warns you when five markets turn out to be one.

All correlations, loadings and theme shares here are sample data built to illustrate the method. Correlation is not causation. Nothing here is investment advice.