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The Foreseez blog

Field notes on how the future gets priced.

Explainers and data stories from the team building the unification layer for prediction markets. Every chart here is live: drag it, poke it, break it.

8 posts · 32 live figures
START HEREMARKET STRUCTURE

Same question. Different answers.

Why three venues can price the same event 7 points apart, and a simulator that shows how much of the gap is just the fine print.

Oct 6, 20269 min read4 live figures Read the post
4pp16pp12pp8pp KALSHI · POLYMARKET · PREDICTIT · SAMPLE
DATA STORY

Anatomy of a CPI morning

Ninety minutes, three venues, one print. Scrub through it second by second.

Oct 15, 20266 min read4 live figures
MARKET STRUCTURE

What a price really costs

The number on screen is the last trade. Walk the order book and see what you would actually pay.

Oct 15, 20267 min read4 live figures
MARKET STRUCTURE

Three prices, one number

How three venues become one consensus, on a balance beam you can tip yourself.

Oct 13, 20267 min read4 live figures
DATA STORY

The half-life of news

Some news moves a market for an hour, some for good. Watch a headline ripple out and fade.

Oct 9, 20267 min read4 live figures
DATA STORY

One web of markets

Map how 24 markets move together and a few hidden themes explain most of it.

Oct 2, 20268 min read4 live figures
FORECASTING

If this, then that

Conditional odds, probability trees, and why chains of likely events get unlikely fast.

Sep 29, 20267 min read4 live figures
FORECASTING

What 62% actually means

Roll the world a hundred times and watch what a probability promises, and what it does not.

Sep 22, 20268 min read4 live figures
Chart of the week

Where the venues disagreed most

Gap between the highest and lowest venue price, in points. Amber bars mean the venues settle on different rules, so part of the gap is the fine print.

Fed cuts in December · 6ppSame source, same deadline. The cleanest disagreement of the week.
Sample data. same rules rules differ

Forecasting, from scratch

Three explainers. Each builds on the last.
1Same question. Different answers.Why venues disagree, and how rules shape prices.2What 62% actually meansProbability, variance and calibration, hands on.3If this, then thatConditional odds and probability trees.

How the plumbing works

What sits behind every number on Foreseez.
1Three prices, one numberHow the consensus is weighted, converted and kept fresh.2What a price really costsOrder books, slippage and fees.3The half-life of newsWhy alerts treat a rumor differently from a data release.
The Friday chart

One chart, every Friday.

The week's biggest disagreement between venues, explained in under a minute. No hot takes, no tips.

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