Not every jump is the same jump
Watch any prediction market for a week and you will see sudden moves. A rate market jumps three points, an oil market four. Some of those moves are still there the next day. Others are gone by lunch.
The difference is mostly about what caused the move. A data release is a fact: once it is out, it does not get less true. A rumor is a claim: it is either confirmed or it fades. Markets seem to know this, at least on average.
In our sample, moves driven by scheduled data keep almost 90% of their size a day later. Moves driven by unconfirmed reports keep less than a tenth, and most of the fading happens in the first few hours.
02Watch it spread
News rarely stays in one market. An oil headline hits oil first, then the markets that depend on oil: inflation, the Fed, the economy. Each step is weaker than the last, and each fades on its own clock. Play it with a rumor, then with confirmed news.
The wave reaches the same markets either way. What differs is whether anything is still lit up when it gets there. A rumor's effect has mostly faded from oil before it ever reaches the Fed market. Confirmed news arrives at full strength and stays.
03Big moves are not more permanent
You might expect larger moves to stick better, as if size were a sign of conviction. In our sample it is not. What predicts whether a move survives is its cause, not its size.
The rumor dots hug the bottom of the chart no matter how big the initial jump was. Some of the largest moves in the sample came from reports that were never confirmed. Size told you how surprised traders were. It did not tell you whether they were right to be.
04What we do with this
This is why Foreseez alerts treat news differently by type. A data release triggers an alert immediately. A headline triggers one with a developing tag and a second look an hour later. A rumor never pushes to your phone on its own; it waits in your feed until a second source confirms it.
A fact does not get less true. The alert goes out as soon as every venue has repriced, usually within a minute.
None of this means rumors are worthless. Sometimes they are early. But a system that pushes every jump to your phone teaches you to ignore it. Sorting news by how long it tends to matter is how alerts stay worth reading.
All moves, retention rates and links in this post are sample data, built to illustrate the pattern. Nothing here is investment advice.