polymarketAI
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
92.4%
Alibaba
−1.0% 24h
Vol 24h $64.9KLiq $146K
polymarketEnds Jan 1, 2027
Next Claude Opus released by...?
96.3%
December 31
Vol 24h $1.4KLiq $6.3K
Yes
97.3%150
97.1%150
97.0%580
96.9%90
96.8%55
spread 1.0%
95.8%612.7
95.7%684
95.6%200
95.5%162.2
95.1%100
No
4.9%100
4.5%162.2
4.4%200
4.3%684
4.2%612.7
spread 1.0%
3.2%55
3.1%90
3.0%580
2.9%150
2.7%150
August 31
Yes 1.5%
1.5%
October 31
Yes 78.5%
78.5%
December 31
Bid 95.8% · Ask 96.8% · spread 1.0%
96.3%
September 30
Yes 46.5%
46.5%
Resolution context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Comments
to comment.
No comments yet.
Related markets
Live books in the same category.
