polymarketfomc
Fed Decision in September?
68.5%
No change
+1.0% 24h
Vol 24h $1.2MLiq $3.9M
polymarketEnds Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5%
Yes
Vol 24h $23.4KLiq $1M
Yes
21.0%7.9K
20.0%44.5K
19.0%127K
18.0%331.7K
17.0%83.9K
spread 1.0%
16.0%159.3K
15.0%1.3M
14.0%338.4K
13.0%24.1K
12.0%48.1K
No
88.0%48.1K
87.0%24.1K
86.0%338.4K
85.0%1.3M
84.0%159.3K
spread 1.0%
83.0%83.9K
82.0%331.7K
81.0%127K
80.0%44.5K
79.0%7.9K
Yes
Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% · spread 1.0%
16.5%
Resolution context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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