polymarketfomc
Fed Decision in September?
68.5%
No change
+1.0% 24h
Vol 24h $1.2MLiq $3.9M
polymarketEnds Dec 31, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
11.5%
Yes
Vol 24h $114KLiq $238K
Yes
16.0%3.3K
15.0%14K
14.0%27.9K
13.0%15.5K
12.0%13.8K
spread 1.0%
11.0%6.3K
10.0%10K
9.0%34K
8.0%58.2K
7.0%28.7K
No
93.0%28.7K
92.0%58.2K
91.0%34K
90.0%10K
89.0%6.3K
spread 1.0%
88.0%13.8K
87.0%15.5K
86.0%27.9K
85.0%14K
84.0%3.3K
Yes
Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% · spread 1.0%
11.5%
Resolution context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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