How to read a probability on a market card

The headline number on a card is the implied probability of the leading outcome: the open market with the highest Yes price. 83% means the live book is pricing that outcome around 83 cents on the dollar.

That is not a poll of users on Foreseez. It is not editorial judgment. It is the midpoint of the venue book, refreshed while you look at the page. If the book is empty, the card falls back to the last reported venue price.

Leading outcome, not the whole event

An event can have many markets. A card still has to pick one number. Foreseez shows the leading Yes. Open the event to see every outcome, the book, and the chart. If you hold a different outcome, the card can still be useful as a snapshot of who is currently priced first.

Volume is not the same as conviction

The dollar figure in the corner is traded volume. A large number means the book has seen activity. It does not mean the probability is locked in. Thin books can print dramatic percentages on very little size. Always check liquidity and the bid/ask before you treat a print as a forecast.