What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a place where people trade contracts that pay out when a specific event happens. The contract for “Will this happen?” is usually worth $1 if it does and $0 if it does not. The price you see in between is the crowd’s implied probability.

If a contract trades at 0.62, the market is saying there is about a 62% chance the event occurs. That number moves when new information arrives, when traders change their minds, or when more money comes in. It is not a poll. It is a price.

Why prices beat takes

A take can be cheap. A price is not. To move a liquid market you have to put size on the book. That does not make the price “true,” but it does make it expensive to be loud and wrong. The result is a public, timestamped forecast you can compare against what actually happened.

Events and markets

Foreseez pages are events: a container for one or more related markets. A presidential election might be one event with a market for each candidate. Each market is a Yes/No question with two outcome tokens. Buying Yes is a bet the statement is true. Buying No is a bet it is false.

Venues such as Polymarket run the real-money books. Foreseez sits above those venues. It does not operate an exchange and does not hold real funds. The live books you read here are the venue’s books.